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Macro indicators
The yield curve, the Sahm rule, inflation, jobless claims, financial conditions and more, with the latest reading and what it means. Data from FRED, updated automatically.
Growth & labour
| Indicator | Latest | 1M change | Status | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sahm rule recession indicator | 0.00 pp | +0.07 pp | Not triggered | September 2026 |
| US unemployment rate | 4.2% | +0.1 pp | — | September 2026 |
| Initial jobless claims | 194,000 | −4,000 | — | Oct 24, 2026 |
| Atlanta Fed GDPNow estimate | 3.7% | +0.5 pp | Growth | Q4 2026 |
Inflation
| Indicator | Latest | 1M change | Status | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CPI inflation (year over year) | 3.7% | +0.4 pp | — | September 2026 |
| Core PCE inflation (year over year) | 3.1% | +0.1 pp | Above 2% | September 2026 |
| 10-year breakeven inflation rate | 2.26% | −0.10 pp | — | Nov 4, 2026 |
Rates & curve
| Indicator | Latest | 1M change | Status | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-year minus 2-year Treasury spread | 0.32 pp | −0.13 pp | Positive | Nov 4, 2026 |
| 10-year minus 3-month Treasury spread | 0.69 pp | −0.40 pp | Positive | Nov 4, 2026 |
| Effective federal funds rate | 3.88% | +0.00 pp | — | Nov 3, 2026 |
| 10-year real yield (TIPS) | 2.65% | −0.27 pp | Positive | Nov 3, 2026 |
Financial conditions
| Indicator | Latest | 1M change | Status | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index | −0.46 | +0.05 | Looser than average | Oct 30, 2026 |
| St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index | −0.52 | +0.28 | Below-average stress | Oct 30, 2026 |
Money & dollar
| Indicator | Latest | 1M change | Status | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Broad trade-weighted US dollar index | 121.67 | +0.70 | — | Oct 30, 2026 |
| M2 money supply (year over year) | 5.7% | +0.1 pp | Growing | September 2026 |
This product uses the FRED® API but is not endorsed or certified by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
Educational and informational only. Not investment advice.