10-year minus 2-year Treasury spread
The 10-year minus 2-year Treasury spread is 0.38 percentage points as of Nov 5, 2026, down 0.09 percentage points from a month earlier.
Over the past year it has fallen by 0.16 percentage points. The latest reading is higher than 33% of all readings since June 1976. It was last this low in September 2026. Current status: positive.
- Latest
- 0.38 pp
- 1 month ago
- 0.47 pp
- 1 year ago
- 0.54 pp
- Change over 1 year
- −0.16 pp
- History percentile
- 33th
- History since
- June 1976
What it is
The difference between the yield on 10-year and 2-year US Treasury notes. It is one of the most watched measures of the shape of the yield curve.
Why it matters for investors
Two-year yields track where investors expect the Federal Reserve's policy rate to go, while 10-year yields also reflect longer-run growth and inflation. When short yields rise above long yields, markets are usually expecting rate cuts ahead, often because they expect the economy to slow.
How to read it
A positive spread is the normal state. A negative spread means the curve is inverted. Inversions have preceded each US recession since the late 1970s, but the lag has varied widely and the curve is not a timing tool. Many economists watch the moment the curve turns positive again after an inversion.
Method and sources
Source: US Department of the Treasury, via the Federal Reserve, retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (series T10Y2Y).
This product uses the FRED® API but is not endorsed or certified by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
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