10-year minus 3-month Treasury spread
The 10-year minus 3-month Treasury spread is 0.69 percentage points as of Nov 4, 2026, down 0.40 percentage points from a month earlier.
Over the past year it has risen by 0.55 percentage points. The latest reading is higher than 27% of all readings since January 1982. It was last this low in July 2026. Current status: positive.
- Latest
- 0.69 pp
- 1 month ago
- 1.09 pp
- 1 year ago
- 0.14 pp
- Change over 1 year
- +0.55 pp
- History percentile
- 28th
- History since
- January 1982
What it is
The difference between the yield on 10-year Treasury notes and 3-month Treasury bills.
Why it matters for investors
The 3-month bill yield sits close to the current federal funds rate, so this spread compares today's policy stance with long-term yields. It is the spread used in the Federal Reserve Bank of New York's recession-probability model.
How to read it
Positive is normal. Negative means the curve is inverted, which has historically been an early warning of slower growth. Watch the direction as well as the level: a curve steepening out of inversion has often coincided with the Fed starting to cut rates.
Method and sources
Source: US Department of the Treasury, via the Federal Reserve, retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (series T10Y3M).
This product uses the FRED® API but is not endorsed or certified by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
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