Core PCE inflation (year over year)
Core PCE inflation was 3.1% in September 2026, up 0.1 percentage points from the month before.
Over the past year it has risen by 0.3 percentage points. The latest reading is higher than 60% of all readings since January 1960. It was last this high in May 2026. Current status: above 2%.
- Latest
- 3.1%
- 1 month ago
- 3.0%
- 1 year ago
- 2.8%
- Change over 1 year
- +0.3 pp
- History percentile
- 60th
- History since
- January 1960
What it is
The year-over-year change in the personal consumption expenditures price index excluding food and energy.
Why it matters for investors
The Federal Reserve defines its 2% inflation target using the PCE price index, and it watches the core version as a guide to where inflation is heading, because food and energy prices swing with weather and oil markets.
How to read it
Readings persistently above 2% keep pressure on the Fed to hold rates higher; readings near 2% give it room to ease. The monthly change, annualised, can show a turn before the year-over-year figure does.
Method and sources
Source: US Bureau of Economic Analysis, retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (series PCEPILFE). We calculate the year-over-year change from the monthly index level. Figures are published with a lag and can be revised.
This product uses the FRED® API but is not endorsed or certified by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
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