10-year breakeven inflation rate
The 10-year breakeven inflation rate is 2.26% as of Nov 4, 2026, down 0.10 percentage points from a month earlier.
Over the past year it has fallen by 0.03 percentage points. The latest reading is higher than 53% of all readings since January 2003. It was last this high in August 2026.
- Latest
- 2.26%
- 1 month ago
- 2.36%
- 1 year ago
- 2.29%
- Change over 1 year
- −0.03 pp
- History percentile
- 55th
- History since
- January 2003
What it is
The difference between the 10-year Treasury yield and the 10-year TIPS yield. It is the average inflation rate over the next 10 years at which the two bonds would earn the same return.
Why it matters for investors
It is a real-time, market-based gauge of inflation expectations, updated every trading day rather than monthly.
How to read it
Readings in the low 2% range have been consistent with markets believing the Fed will keep inflation near target. Breakevens also include risk and liquidity premiums, so they are not a pure forecast.
Method and sources
Source: US Department of the Treasury, via the Federal Reserve, retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (series T10YIE).
This product uses the FRED® API but is not endorsed or certified by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
Download CSVRelated indicators
Related news
This is Step 1 of The MacroInsight Process: the daily snapshot. The indicators to check before anything else each day.
The market, read before the bell.
What moved overnight, why it moved and what's next, in five minutes. Written by our desk, checked by a trader.
Plus our 25-minute training, free on sign-up