Sahm rule recession indicator
The Sahm rule indicator was 0.00 percentage points in September 2026, up 0.07 percentage points from the month before.
Over the past year it has fallen by 0.23 percentage points. The latest reading is higher than 33% of all readings since December 1959. It was last this low in April 2023. Current status: not triggered.
- Latest
- 0.00 pp
- 1 month ago
- −0.07 pp
- 1 year ago
- 0.23 pp
- Change over 1 year
- −0.23 pp
- History percentile
- 44th
- History since
- December 1959
What it is
An indicator developed by economist Claudia Sahm. It measures how far the three-month average of the US unemployment rate has risen above its lowest three-month average of the previous 12 months.
Why it matters for investors
Historically, a rise of 0.50 percentage points or more has occurred early in US recessions, which makes it one of the timeliest recession signals based on real-time data.
How to read it
At 0.50 or above, the rule is triggered. Readings climbing toward that level show the labour market weakening. Sahm has noted the rule can give false signals when unemployment rises for unusual reasons, such as a fast-growing labour force.
Method and sources
Source: Claudia Sahm, via the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (series SAHMREALTIME). Figures are published with a lag and can be revised.
This product uses the FRED® API but is not endorsed or certified by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
Download CSVRelated indicators
Related news
This is Step 1 of The MacroInsight Process: the daily snapshot. The indicators to check before anything else each day.
The market, read before the bell.
What moved overnight, why it moved and what's next, in five minutes. Written by our desk, checked by a trader.
Plus our 25-minute training, free on sign-up