Conviction Book scorecard

Nov 21, 2025 to Nov 5, 2026. Returns are at 1% risk per idea: each idea counts as risking 1% of the account, sized so that reaching its invalidation level loses 1%. An idea's return is its move from the middle of its entry range, as first published, to the level the analyst recorded when closing it, in the idea's direction, as a multiple of the distance from that middle to its invalidation level (as first published; for an invalidation range, its far edge), times 1%: an idea that closed three times as far as its invalidation is +3.00%. An idea that never traded in its entry range counts at 0%, as does an idea imported from our previous app with no recorded result; other imported ideas use the result recorded there. An idea taken down after publishing still counts, at the level it closed at if it had one, else at 0%: nothing is removed after the fact. These are the same rules, and the same ideas, as the Track record members see. "Price moved" is the market's move from the entry middle to the close, for reference. On the day an idea closes, its return is added to the line; returns are added up, not compounded. Open ideas count once they close. Ideas overlap in time, so the line isn't the return of an account. Benchmarks are price changes over the same period: the S&P 500 index, front-month gold futures and bitcoin in US dollars. These are research ideas, not a managed account or a live portfolio. The figures are hypothetical: every idea is treated as risking the same 1% of an account, before fees, taxes, slippage and borrowing costs, and your results would differ. Past results are not a reliable guide to future results. Read the full disclaimer.

With leverage (2×, 3×, 5×) the figures are hypothetical: the cumulative return shown is multiplied by the leverage on every date, before borrowing costs and fees. Leverage magnifies losses as well as gains, and a line that falls to −100% has lost everything and ends there.